Andrea Orcel: “UniCredit will exit Generali”. Will it do the same with Mediobanca? And when?

Andrea Orcel , CEO of UniCredit, has declared his intention to gradually abandon his stake in the insurance company Generali , exiting in the medium term. During his speech at the annual CEO conference organized by Mediobanca, Orcel defined the 6.7% stake held by UniCredit as a financial investment, not a strategic one .

However, it is difficult not to attribute a broader significance to this choice: declaring the exit from Generali at this stage is equivalent to marking a step backwards in the confrontation between shareholders and governance of the Trieste-based company. A significant step, considering that at the beginning of April UniCredit had supported the list proposed by Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone in the assembly, implicitly criticizing the continuity represented by CEO Philippe Donnet.

Even the influence exerted by UniCredit on the board of Mediobanca, which led to the postponement of the meeting in which the possible sale of Banca Generali would have been voted on, shows that the bank led by Orcel is not a passive subject in the Italian banking game . The 4% share in Mediobanca, held directly and through Generali, continues to have a weight. However, in the most important game he has set himself — making UniCredit a major player in the European banking landscape — the manager today appears to be in clear difficulty.

Ops on Banco Bpm and the golden power knot

The other big open game concerns Banco Bpm . The public exchange offer announced by UniCredit has raised the attention of the Italian government and the European Commission, with the latter asking for clarifications on the application of the golden power also to operations between Italian companies.

The government responded by arguing that the protection of savings can be considered a matter of national security . And it specified that, even though these are Italian entities, the high component of foreign capital present in UniCredit's shareholding - approximately 60% - justifies the possible recourse to the golden power.

In this scenario, Orcel has made it known that, in the absence of a stable regulatory framework, the takeover bid cannot be carried forward . A clear position, which cools expectations on the outcome of the operation.

A capital to be employed and a conditional growth

UniCredit has approximately 10 billion euros of excess capital . A reserve that can be used for strategic acquisitions or, alternatively, for a higher distribution of dividends to shareholders starting in 2027.

In the event that the operation on Banco Bpm were to stop and no new concrete ways to employ this resource were to open up, the only viable option would be to strengthen the remuneration to investors. This, however, could mark a setback for the ambition of making UniCredit a pan-European player .

UniCredit's situation is not isolated. Other banks on the continent also find themselves operating in national contexts that limit their possibilities for expansion. Excess capital, in these cases, becomes an operational constraint rather than a strategic lever.

The Limits of Bank Protectionism

The orientation of the Italian authorities, which tend to protect the domestic ownership of banking institutions, reflects an approach shared by other European governments, such as those of Germany, Spain and Portugal.

However, these choices are in contrast with the line drawn by the European Central Bank and the European Commission , which aim for greater integration and consolidation of the continental banking sector.

The risk is that this "national" (or, if you like, "sovereignist") logic forces institutions to maintain a smaller size than necessary to compete on a global scale, slowing down growth projects and reducing margins to offer more efficient services at lower costs.

Orcel's strategic assessment: tactical maneuvers and unresolved ambitions

The strategy pursued by Orcel seems to clearly distinguish between two approaches : on the one hand, tactical operations with short-term objectives – such as the investment in Generali, now being sold – and on the other, more strategic projects , such as the integration with Banco Bpm, but also the openings towards Commerzbank and Alpha Bank, which however clash with political and institutional limits.

So far, the greatest results have come from tactical initiatives . On the contrary, broader industrial plans are struggling to find favorable ground. In particular, in the most ambitious challenge that Orcel has set himself — transforming UniCredit into a pan-European group — evident difficulties are emerging.

The issue of residual shareholdings remains open. After the exit from Generali, will UniCredit also maintain or sell its stake in Mediobanca? And, if so, when? Before, during or after a possible operation on Montepaschi?